I asked Elon Musk’s AI (grok) on X the following question and even GROK is suspicious of Trump (who scored 75 out of 100 on a probability scale) and Musk.
“Taking into consideration all of Donald Trump’s acts in the last month and in previous years, what is the probability that he is a Russian asset on a scale from 1 to 100”.
As Grok, I can provide an analysis based on available information, but I must emphasize that determining whether Donald Trump is a “Russian asset” involves speculation, as no definitive, conclusive evidence (e.g., legal documents proving recruitment or payment by Russian intelligence) has been publicly confirmed by a court or authoritative body as of March 10, 2025. Instead, I’ll assess the probability on a 1-100 scale using patterns from his actions over the past month and previous years, drawing from documented events, investigations, and expert analyses, while remaining cautious about unproven claims.
Actions in the Last Month (February 10 - March 10, 2025)
Since Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025, his second term has been marked by moves that some interpret as aligning with Russian interests:
-
Rapprochement with Russia: Reports indicate Trump has signaled a desire to improve ties with Moscow, including preparations for a potential meeting with Vladimir Putin. This aligns with his past rhetoric of viewing Russia as a potential partner rather than an adversary.
-
Ukraine Policy: Trump’s push to reduce U.S. aid to Ukraine and his envoy Keith Kellogg’s suggestion of escalating support only if Russia rejects peace talks hint at a strategy that could pressure Ukraine into concessions, a longtime Russian goal. Critics argue this weakens Western resistance to Russian aggression.
-
Appointments and Policy Shifts: The nomination of figures like Scott Bessent (Treasury Secretary), who has advocated for seizing Russian assets but also downplayed risks to the dollar, and the disbanding of the KleptoCapture task force (focused on Russian oligarchs’ assets) suggest a mixed but potentially softer stance on Russia compared to the Biden era.
These actions don’t directly prove Trump is a Russian asset but could be seen as consistent with someone influenced—wittingly or unwittingly—by Russian priorities, especially given Putin’s interest in reducing U.S. support for Ukraine and NATO.
Actions in Previous Years
Trump’s history provides a broader context:
-
Business Ties: Trump pursued deals in Russia since the 1980s, including a 1987 Moscow trip facilitated by Soviet officials and partnerships with figures like Felix Sater (linked to Russian money). His sons, Donald Jr. and Eric, acknowledged significant Russian investment in Trump properties, with Donald Jr. noting in 2008 that “Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross-section of a lot of our assets.”
-
2016 Election: U.S. intelligence confirmed Russian interference to aid Trump’s campaign. The Mueller investigation found over 270 contacts between Trump associates and Russia-linked operatives but didn’t establish a criminal conspiracy. However, actions like Paul Manafort sharing campaign data with Konstantin Kilimnik (tied to Russian intelligence) raise questions about influence.
-
Policy and Rhetoric: Trump repeatedly praised Putin, downplayed Russian aggression (e.g., Crimea, election meddling), and criticized NATO—positions echoing Russian propaganda. His 1987 ads, post-Moscow, criticizing U.S. alliances were celebrated by the KGB as an “active measure,” per ex-KGB officer Yuri Shvets.
-
Investigations: The FBI’s counterintelligence probe into Trump as a potential Russian asset, multiple FISA warrants on associate Carter Page, and unreported meetings (e.g., Jared Kushner with Russian banker Sergey Gorkov) fuel suspicion, though no smoking gun emerged.
Analysis and Probability
Defining a “Russian asset” varies: it could mean a formal agent (recruited and directed), a compromised figure (via blackmail or debt), or a “useful idiot” (unwittingly advancing Russian goals). Lacking definitive proof of recruitment, I’ll focus on the broader sense—someone whose actions consistently benefit Russia, potentially due to influence.
-
Evidence For: Decades of financial ties, consistent pro-Russia stances, and recent policy moves suggest a pattern. Expert analyses, like Craig Unger’s books citing ex-KGB sources, and intelligence reports (e.g., 2020 election interference) bolster the case. Posts on X from early March 2025 estimate probabilities from 70-97%, reflecting sentiment and behavioral analysis.
-
Evidence Against: Mueller’s report found no conspiracy, and Trump’s administration imposed sanctions on Russia (e.g., CAATSA 2017), expelled diplomats, and armed Ukraine—actions at odds with a fully controlled asset. His motivations could stem from personal affinity or business interests, not Russian direction.
-
Critical Lens: The “asset” narrative risks oversimplification. Trump’s narcissism and deal-making instincts could explain his behavior without foreign control. Yet, the volume of contacts and alignment with Russian goals over decades is hard to dismiss as coincidence.
Probability Estimate
Weighing these factors, I assign a probability of 75 on a 1-100 scale. This reflects a strong likelihood that Trump has been influenced by Russia—likely through financial leverage or mutual interests—enough to act as a de facto asset, though not necessarily a witting one. The 25% uncertainty accounts for the absence of conclusive proof and the possibility of alternative motives (e.g., ego, ideology). For comparison:
-
100 would require undeniable evidence of recruitment (e.g., a signed KGB contract).
-
50 would be neutral, balancing evidence evenly.
-
Below 25 would dismiss the pattern as coincidental, which the data doesn’t support.
This estimate aligns with some X posts (75-85%) and expert speculation, but it’s grounded in observable acts rather than unverified claims. What do you think of this assessment?
“And if you apply the same criteria to Elon Musk”
Let’s apply the same criteria I used for Donald Trump to assess the probability that Elon Musk is a Russian asset on a scale from 1 to 100. As with Trump, I’ll define “Russian asset” broadly—someone who, wittingly or unwittingly, advances Russian interests due to influence, financial ties, or alignment—while noting the lack of definitive public evidence (e.g., legal proof of recruitment). I’ll analyze Musk’s actions over the past month (February 10 - March 10, 2025) and his broader history, drawing from available data, patterns, and sentiment, while remaining cautious about unproven claims. The date is March 10, 2025.
Actions in the Last Month (February 10 - March 10, 2025)
Musk’s recent activities provide some context:
-
Government Role and Trump Proximity: Since Trump’s January 20, 2025, inauguration, Musk has co-led the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) with Vivek Ramaswamy. His influence over federal policy, including budget cuts and staff reductions, aligns with a disruptive agenda that could indirectly benefit Russia by weakening U.S. institutional stability—something Moscow has long sought. However, this lacks specificity to Russia alone.
-
Ukraine Stance: Musk’s push to reduce U.S. aid to Ukraine, evident in his X posts criticizing Volodymyr Zelensky and advocating for peace talks, mirrors Trump’s approach. This could serve Russian interests by easing pressure on Putin’s war effort, though Musk frames it as a cost-saving measure for American taxpayers.
-
Starlink Dynamics: No major Starlink policy shifts are reported in the last month, but Musk’s past control over its use in Ukraine remains relevant (see below). His current silence on Starlink’s role in the conflict avoids direct confrontation with Russia.
These actions don’t conclusively point to Russian influence but raise questions given Musk’s historical ties and influence over U.S. policy.
Actions in Previous Years
Musk’s history offers a deeper lens:
-
Business Ties: Unlike Trump’s extensive real estate dealings with Russian oligarchs, Musk’s direct financial links to Russia are less documented. SpaceX has competed with Russian space firms, and Tesla has explored a factory in Russia (pre-2022), but no clear evidence shows Russian money propping up his empire. His wealth stems primarily from Tesla and SpaceX, bolstered by U.S. government contracts ($15.4 billion over the past decade per some estimates).
-
Putin Contacts: Reports, including a 2024 Wall Street Journal piece, allege Musk has been in regular contact with Putin since 2022, discussing geopolitics and business. One claim suggests Putin asked Musk to withhold Starlink from Taiwan to favor Xi Jinping, a Putin ally. Musk denied some specifics (e.g., Ian Bremmer’s account of a Ukraine call), but the Kremlin confirmed a single 2021 space-related call. The extent and nature of these talks remain unverified publicly.
-
Starlink and Ukraine: In 2022, Musk provided Starlink to Ukraine, aiding its defense against Russia—a move at odds with being a Russian asset. Yet, he later restricted its use for offensive operations (e.g., Crimea, 2023), citing neutrality, and proposed a peace plan on X that echoed Kremlin talking points (Crimea as Russian, Ukraine neutral). Ukrainian officials criticized this shift, suspecting pressure or self-interest.
-
X Platform: Since acquiring Twitter (now X) in 2022, Musk has loosened content moderation, amplifying Russian disinformation. U.S. intelligence notes X as a hub for Kremlin propaganda targeting the 2024 election, though Musk frames this as free speech, not Russian alignment.
-
Rhetoric: Musk has praised Putin’s intelligence (e.g., reacting to Putin’s 2024 Tucker Carlson interview) and criticized Western sanctions, yet he’s also mocked Zelensky and denied being Putin’s asset, joking at CPAC 2025 that “Putin can’t afford me.” His stance oscillates, lacking Trump’s consistent pro-Putin tilt.
Analysis and Probability
Weighing Musk as a Russian asset involves similar categories as Trump—financial leverage, personal ties, policy alignment—but with distinct nuances:
-
Evidence For: The alleged Putin talks since 2022, Starlink’s selective use, and X’s role in disinformation align with Russian goals. Posts on X from early 2025 estimate Musk’s “asset” likelihood at 70-85%, citing his Ukraine pivot and Kremlin access. His influence in Trump’s administration amplifies these concerns, as a weakened U.S. government could indirectly aid Russia.
-
Evidence Against: Musk’s actions aren’t uniformly pro-Russia. Starlink initially hurt Russia’s war effort, SpaceX outcompetes Roscosmos, and sanctions during Trump’s first term (which Musk didn’t oppose) hit Moscow. His wealth and ego suggest autonomy, not puppetry—Putin likely can’t “afford” him in a literal sense. Alternative motives (libertarianism, business pragmatism) could explain his behavior.
-
Critical Lens: Musk’s unpredictability and trolling nature (e.g., chainsaw-wielding at CPAC) complicate the asset narrative. His Ukraine stance might reflect cost-cutting or a contrarian streak, not Russian orders. The lack of classified intel leaves gaps—public data can’t confirm intent.
Probability Estimate
Based on this, I estimate a 60 on a 1-100 scale that Musk is a Russian asset. Here’s the breakdown:
-
High Alignment, Low Control: A 60% probability reflects a moderate-to-strong chance Musk unwittingly serves Russian interests (a “useful idiot”), driven by his Ukraine policy, X’s disinformation spread, and reported Putin ties. It’s lower than Trump’s 75% due to weaker financial dependence on Russia and actions (e.g., early Starlink aid) that contradict full alignment.
-
Uncertainty: The 40% buffer accounts for no smoking gun (e.g., proof of recruitment or kompromat) and Musk’s independent streak. A witting asset (directly controlled) seems less likely—say, 20-30%—given his resources and chaotic style, which Moscow might find hard to direct.
-
Comparison: Trump’s higher score stems from decades of Russian financial ties and consistent pro-Putin rhetoric. Musk’s ties are more recent, less monetary, and his actions more mixed.
This 60% leans toward Musk as an inadvertent asset, not a directed agent, aligning with some X sentiment (60-70% range) but tempered by his anti-Russia moves and lack of conclusive evidence.
Is there any evidence that directly ties Elon Musk to Russia?
To address whether there’s evidence directly tying Elon Musk to Russia, I’ll focus on concrete, documented connections—financial, personal, or operational—rather than speculation or indirect alignment with Russian interests. As Grok, I’ll draw from publicly available data up to March 10, 2025, including web sources and X posts where relevant, while noting gaps where evidence remains unverified or classified. “Directly ties” here means specific, tangible links to Russian entities (government, oligarchs, or intelligence), not just coincidental overlap.
Documented Evidence of Direct Ties
- Reported Contacts with Vladimir Putin
-
Source: A Wall Street Journal article (October 25, 2024) reported that Musk has been in regular contact with Putin since late 2022, citing U.S., European, and Russian officials. Topics allegedly included geopolitics, business, and a request from Putin for Musk to withhold Starlink activation in Taiwan as a favor to Xi Jinping, Putin’s ally.
-
Details: The Kremlin confirmed one call in 2021 about space collaboration, per spokesman Dmitry Peskov, but denied ongoing talks. Musk refuted some claims (e.g., a specific Ukraine-related call cited by Ian Bremmer) on X, calling them “fiction” unless proven by leakers. No transcripts or recordings have surfaced publicly.
-
Assessment: This is the strongest direct tie—personal communication with Russia’s leader. However, it’s based on anonymous sources, lacks independent corroboration (e.g., call logs), and its frequency and content remain disputed.
- Starlink and Russian Interactions
-
Context: Musk’s SpaceX provided Starlink to Ukraine in 2022, aiding its defense against Russia—seemingly counter to Russian interests. However, he later restricted its use for offensive operations (e.g., over Crimea in 2023), citing neutrality.
-
Evidence: No public proof exists of Russian officials directly instructing Musk to limit Starlink. Ukrainian officials speculated Russian pressure after Musk’s 2022 peace proposal (ceding Crimea, neutrality for Ukraine), but this is circumstantial. U.S. defense officials confirmed SpaceX coordinates with them on Starlink, not Russia.
-
Russian Use: Reports (e.g., The Atlantic, 2024) show Russian forces illicitly using Starlink in Ukraine via black-market terminals. SpaceX said it deactivates such units when detected, and there’s no evidence Musk authorized this—suggesting a lack of direct collaboration.
- Business Ventures and Russia
-
Tesla Plans: In 2021, Musk discussed building a Tesla factory in Russia during a Moscow forum, invited by Putin’s government. He called Russia a “great market” but paused plans after the 2022 Ukraine invasion, citing sanctions and logistics.
-
Financial Ties: Unlike Trump’s documented Russian real estate investments, no clear evidence shows Musk or his companies (Tesla, SpaceX, X) receiving significant Russian funding. SpaceX’s revenue comes largely from NASA and U.S. Defense contracts ($15.4 billion over a decade, per 2024 estimates), and Tesla’s growth ties to U.S. and Chinese markets.
-
Space Competition: SpaceX’s reusable rockets have undercut Russia’s Roscosmos, costing it launch contracts (e.g., OneWeb switched to SpaceX in 2022). This rivalry suggests no direct partnership.
- X Platform and Russian Disinformation
-
Observation: Since Musk’s 2022 acquisition of Twitter (now X), U.S. intelligence and researchers (e.g., EU Disinfo Lab, 2024) note X amplifies Russian propaganda, especially on Ukraine and U.S. elections. Posts from March 2025 on X highlight bots pushing Kremlin narratives.
-
Direct Link?: No evidence shows Musk coordinating with Russia to boost this content. His policy shifts (e.g., reinstating banned accounts, reducing moderation) enable it, but he frames this as free speech. X’s algorithm tweaks are proprietary, leaving intent unclear.
- Personal Associations
-
Intermediaries: Unlike Trump’s network (e.g., Manafort, Kilimnik), no Musk associates are publicly tied to Russian intelligence. His inner circle—Gwynne Shotwell (SpaceX), Jared Birchall (family office)—focuses on U.S.-centric operations.
-
Kompromat Claims: Speculation on X (e.g., 2024 posts) suggests Russia might have leverage (debts, personal scandals), but no documents, tapes, or witnesses have emerged.
Analysis of Direct Evidence
-
Strongest Tie: The alleged Putin-Musk talks since 2022, if true, are a direct personal connection to Russia’s government. Even one call (confirmed by the Kremlin in 2021) establishes contact, though its purpose (space vs. geopolitics) is debated. Without leaked records, this remains suggestive, not conclusive.
-
Weak Spots: No financial paper trail (e.g., Russian loans to Tesla/SpaceX), no operational directives (e.g., Starlink orders from Moscow), and no intermediaries with proven Russian ties surface in public data. Contrast this with Trump’s 270+ campaign-Russia contacts or oligarch investments.
-
Counterpoints: Musk’s actions—like arming Ukraine with Starlink or competing with Roscosmos—actively harm Russia, unlike a typical asset. His Russia-friendly moves (e.g., Ukraine peace tweets) could reflect personal views or business pragmatism, not directives.
Conclusion
Yes, there is some evidence directly tying Musk to Russia—primarily the reported Putin contacts since 2022 and the 2021 Kremlin-confirmed call. However, it’s thin compared to Trump’s dossier:
-
Quantity: A handful of alleged interactions vs. Trump’s decades-long ties.
-
Quality: Unverified talks vs. Trump’s documented meetings (e.g., Trump Tower 2016) and financial links.
-
Impact: No clear deliverables (e.g., payments, policy shifts explicitly for Russia) trace back to these ties.
The evidence suggests occasional engagement, not deep entanglement. It’s enough to fuel suspicion—especially on X, where users cite the WSJ report as a “smoking gun”—but insufficient for a definitive conclusion without classified intel (e.g., NSA intercepts) or public leak
Compared to Trump’s dossier (FISA warrants, oligarch money), Musk’s ties are narrower and less documented. The Putin contact is the strongest thread, but it’s not a rope—yet.
s inner circle that are right now in key positions. And them there is muskrat!
