Russia is continuing to pour Z units into the Kupyansk area and they are making gains, though small and incremental.
General Syrsky thought it sufficiently important to spend most of his time there in recent days. Ukrainian reinf___ements have been and continue to be deployed. Now this isn’t as bad as it sounds. For one the Russians seem to have made a much wider decision in my opinion. They want the Luhansk and Donetsk areas and that’s where they have placed almost all of what matters that’s left.
North and south of Bakhmut the Ukrainians seem to have decided they’ve done enough - I could be wrong of course, but I have a feeling that their mission now is to pin the Russians down and go on the defensive. They know Russia can’t admit or afford to loose Bakhmut politically, so Ukraine is well aware it can keep Russians engaged here indefinitely.
Ukraine has made no offensive moves to push the matter in days. That’s got to be important. The Bakhmut front was one of the possible major advance targets but I think it’s now been ruled out.
The real advances and the biggest options are the twin tracks of Robotnye and Zvitove. Ukraine has deployed the 87th Airborne - a fully trained professional NATO standard equipped elite unit of 2,000+ men. These are the guys with the Challenger-2’s and the Marders & Strykers. These are Ukraine’s Storm
Troopers and they’re being used now because they can make a difference. They, I think, are the hammer that cracks the Russian defences at Robotnye and opens up that major advance line.
On the other end is the 47th and the 9th and they are battle hardened and effective.
Ukraine has the initiative in the south and the Russians know it.
Added to that is the Kherson front. This is the fox in the hen house. It’s totally screwed up the Russian response and has deeply undermined the whole southern front.
Forget the tactics for a moment. This is what I think has really happened on both sides.
RUSSIA: I think Russia has more or less given up in its own mind the whole of the south. They accept it will be lost but they won’t just abandon it. They’ll make Ukraine pay for it as much as they can.
What Russia is doing is keeping its best f___es on the Eastern front area and they’ll fight hard to keep what they have and even expand it. But I do think in the end, they know Zaporhizia and Kherson are lost.
UKRAINE:
I think Ukraine has decided it can’t push any more at Bakhmut. It might make some attempts but they’ll fight the Russians tooth and nail to hold what they have taken just to keep them there.
They’re seeing their strategy come to fruition in the south and the Russians are unable to stop them despite trying. It’s just become impossible for Russian artillery and logistics to provide the backup Russian military operations require. Ukraine can smell victory here and the Russians there know it too. The south is Russia’s sacrifice to sustain the Eastern front. They just don’t want it to look like one.
The big question is Crimea. Breaking into the peninsula could be a miserable battle. Clearing Russians out of it just as much so. Neither side has worked out how it will go yet.
My reason for why I think the Russians at the top have let the south go in their minds: if it really was what they wanted to keep they would have thrown everything at it. Instead they tinker around in the east doing nothing much but with large enough f___es they know they’re going to be a nightmare to get rid of. If it can even be done.
They’re letting the south collapse slowly as a means of slowing the Ukrainians down and prolonging the war past the Russian and US elections, in March and November next year.
Putin wants no doubt about his result - it’ll be faked but he wants a real majority. And he wants Trump back in office to end aid to Ukraine. He thinks in the end he’ll walk away with enough to survive. I think he’s wrong ultimately, but it’s clear to see why he thinks it might work.
NATO will support Ukraine until it wins the war - Stoltenberg
The NATO Secretary General stated this at a press conference, answering a question about possible territorial concessions by Kyiv for membership in the North Atlantic Alliance.
Jens Stoltenberg also added that only Ukraine can determine the terms for negotiations with Russia, according to Reuters .
“It is the Ukrainians, and only the Ukrainians, who can decide when there are conditions for negotiations, and who can decide at the negotiating table which solution is acceptable,” the NATO Secretary General stressed.
Happening now!!
2,000 people were hastily evacuated from “Moscow City” due to an anonymous message “arrival of a drone”. Several fire engines and rescuers were brought to the complex. @DiDiAussie
A Ukrainian flag has appeared in front of the FSB building in Nizhny Novgorod
Local social media blogs report that as early as yesterday a large bag was hanging on the wires. Early this morning it came off, leaving the contents on display. Frightened officials sent firefighters to remove the flag🤡
In Enerhodar, a drone “spoiled” a meeting of the heads of the occupation police. It hit the window of the office, where the head of the city department, Colonel Pavel Chesanov of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs, his deputy, the head of the investigation department, the head of the duty unit and the heads of a number of units were present.
The GUR claims that all of them were wounded, probably in serious condition. They were transported by helicopter to Russia. The building itself was heavily damaged. It was on fire from the 3rd to the 5th floor.
Has Ukraine managed the extraordinary and rolled out pontoons over the river and swamp to the south bank of the Dnepr?
They seem to be saying so.
It’s not impossible by any means but it would have taken an extraordinary level of prior planning and surely a D-Day type build of special equipment to manage such an undertaking.
It could of course be a clever ruse to panic the Russians into taking some sort of action - or running even faster in the opposite direction.
Of course I want it to be true and so do you, because if it is it’s just about the most daring and deviously fiendish military risky undertaking in the war so far!
If it’s true then even as we speak armour is rolling into the occupied Kherson oblast and the war just took a new turn.
Even the idea of it might be enough to freak the Russians into a withdrawal.
However we have to ask, what was point of the whole operation if it wasn’t to do this? In the end who dares, wins!
Here’s to it being true!
The Analyst
Information is circulating online that at the time the missile hit Chernihiv, an exhibition of drones was taking place in the center.
Similar exhibitions have been held many times in Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and even in frontline Kharkiv.
Such exhibitions and their announcements should be assessed by law enf___ement agencies and the Regional Military Administration.
However, it should be remembered that the only cause of death is the terrorists of the Russian Federation, who do not care where and how many missiles they launch.
@liveukraine_media
The center of Chernihiv now. Consequences of a ballistic missile strike
Two planes are on fire at the Soltsy airbase in the Novgorod region, presumably due to a drone strike, local publics report.
In Soltsy, Novgorod region, a military airfield was attacked by drones - RF minibuildings
After a UAV strike, a massive fire broke out at a military airfield in the Novgorod region. Officially, the Ministry of Defence swamps say that one aircraft was affected.
As practice shows, there inclined to reduce losses.
The military airfield in Soltsy was home to Tu-22M3 long-range supersonic bombers, which carry out missile strikes with Kh-22 missiles against Ukraine.
Now the surviving troughs are being moved to the airfield at Olenya in the Murmansk region.
Eyewitnesses say that at least two aircraft exploded after the UAV strike on the military airfield.
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A Ukrainian flag has appeared in front of the FSB building in Nizhny Novgorod
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The moment of a missile strike on Chernihiv was shown online, which was caught on CCTV cameras
In Soltsy, Novgorod region, a military airfield was attacked by drones - RF minibuildings
