@Sparky. Again you make some very valid points which are rational. Another question is what will Viktor Orban do now along with Recep Erdogan say or do.
It certainly is a very interesting conundrum as if NATO do nothing it will sort of make a mockery out of the whole organisation.
I would not dare to contemplate what will happen now to be honest.
From Sky News
Poland âset to trigger NATOâs Article 4â
NATO ambassadors will meet tomorrow at the request of Poland on basis of the allianceâs Article 4, two European diplomats have told Reuters news agency.
According to Article 4 of the allianceâs founding treaty, members can raise any issue of concern, especially related to the security of a member country.
One of the diplomats said NATO would act cautiously and needed time to verify how exactly the incident happened.
If this is the case, it would confirm the consensus among a number of experts (see 20.04 post) who suggested it was unlikely that the alliance would opt to invoke of Article 5 - which would likely involve a direct retaliatory military strike on Russia, and a major escalation and widening of the conflict.
@iain Thank you. Viktor Orban will probably remain quiet for now while he waits on the sidelines to see what NATO decides. As for ErdoÄan, he is in a very different position and a very awkward one too. It will be very difficult for him as Turkey is a member of NATO. He is caught between NATO and Russia now. I think he will probably call for more peace talks and state they are needed more now than at any stage regardless of the Polish outcome.
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Yes, you are right Erdogan will do it because war between Nato and Russia means world war because in this case, Russiaâs allies will not remain silent (especially China & India). But Erdoganâs call for peace would be the most correct. Because a world war would be a disaster, and that applies to all of us.
Besides, it would be foolish to underestimate Turkish soldiers no matter what. Because, both in terms of military numbers (some 500 thousand professional personnel and thousands of reserve soldiers and new equipment systems), I mean they are still one of at the forefront of NATOâs important military f___es.
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I agree, it this point in time that NATO will not attack as they need to gather all the facts first. And then âIFâ Article 5 is invoked after and Article 4 they will then determine an appropriate response. That response doesnât necessarily mean NATO boots on the ground going head to head with Russia. I suspect that it would mean even more and better equipment (than what they would have gotten) to include more ground to air capabilities to take out misses and or aircraft. And of course Iâm guessing even more sanctions (what ever they can still sanction). particularly the Oligarchs and family that still support Putin.
But I have to say interesting that these missiles take out grain and the dryers that dry the grain. Not saying it was a targeted strike as of course I have no proof. But, it definitely makes me take a hard look at the possibility. Was this a message to Poland for the help have they given the Ukraine and a poke at NATO to see what they can get away with? A rhetorical question.
Donât jump to conclusions, guys.
The missile parts gathered at the site are from the S-300P anti-missile defense system.
Edit:
News already coming:
The Associated Press news agency is quoting three US officials as saying a preliminary assessment suggests the missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian f___es at an incoming Russian missile.
Earlier on Tuesday President Biden said it was âunlikelyâ the missile that hit Poland was fired from Russia.
@ Handsdown it doesnât have to be fired from Russia. It is Russian made. Now what has to be establish who really did fire it.
Missile that k__led two in Poland needs full investigation
If it is the S-300, then it was 100% not launched from Russia, it has much too little range.
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_209104.htm
NATOâs Supreme Allied Commander, General Christopher Cavoli, briefed the meeting of the North Atlantic Council, and Polandâs Ambassador to NATO, Tomasz Szatkowski, updated Allies on the incident and the ongoing investigation.
âSince the start of Russiaâs illegal war in Ukraine, NATO has increased vigilance across our eastern flank,â NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said after the meeting. He stated that we need to await the outcome of the ongoing investigation, but âwe have no indication that this was the result of a deliberate attack and we have no indication that Russia is preparing offensive military actions against NATOâ. He added: âOur preliminary analysis suggests that the incident was likely caused by a Ukrainian air defence missile fired to defend Ukrainian territory against Russian cruise missile attacks. But let me clear: this is not Ukraineâs fault. Russia bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine.â
Allies made clear that they will continue to support Ukraine in its right to self-defence. They also offered their deepest condolences on the tragic loss of life and expressed their strong solidarity with Poland.
âWe agreed that we need to stay vigilant, calm and closely coordinated. We will continue to consult and monitor the situation very closely. NATO stands united and we will always do what is necessary to protect and defend all Allies,â Mr Stoltenberg said.
